:Product: 19991007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 280 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE THREE SMALL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8727 (N18E53) WAS NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE THIRD DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN
RESPONSE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 OCT-10 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 OCT 129
PREDICTED   08 OCT-10 OCT  130/135/140
90 DAY MEAN        07 OCT 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT  010/010-015/015-020/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 OCT-10 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/35
MINOR STORM           05/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10