:Product: 19991008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 281 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E01) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WITH A LONG DURATION C6/1N AT
08/1253Z. NEW REGION 8728 (N22E74) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE LAST TWO
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 OCT 151
PREDICTED   09 OCT-11 OCT  155/155/158
90 DAY MEAN        08 OCT 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 OCT  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 OCT-11 OCT  015/015-020/025-020/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/40
MINOR STORM           10/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10