:Product: 19991009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 282 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8729 (N11E67) WAS
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 OCT 153
PREDICTED   10 OCT-12 OCT  155/158/160
90 DAY MEAN        09 OCT 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  020/020-020/020-020/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10