:Product: 19991014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 287 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8731 (N29E24) PRODUCED
AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0900Z. THE EVENT WAS RATHER IMPULSIVE BUT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS
CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
DELTA SPOT FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION, JUST IN FRONT OF THE
DOMINANT TRAILER. REGION 8732 (N20E16) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH BUT WAS
QUIET. REGION 8728 (N22E00) APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A HIGH LATITUDE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N70W50
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/1524Z AND 14/1529Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY MODERATE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8731.IF
THE CURRENT TREND IN 8731 CONTINUES THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8732 AND 8728 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
PRODUCTION OF MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM 1500-1800Z. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM
WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     10/15/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 OCT 200
PREDICTED   15 OCT-17 OCT  200/200/200
90 DAY MEAN        14 OCT 156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT  021/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  020/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  020/025-010/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01