:Product: 19991015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 288 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731
(N12E10) STABILIZED AS A MODERATE-SIZED, MAGNETICALLY-COMPLEX REGION
AND IT APPEARED TO HAVE LOST THE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR
REGION CENTER. IT PRODUCED NUMEROUS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS
A C7/SF AT 15/0115Z. NEW REGION 8734 (N16E20) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8731 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES AND MAY
ALSO PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY ONE AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES. QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     10/15/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 OCT 198
PREDICTED   16 OCT-18 OCT  200/200/195
90 DAY MEAN        15 OCT 156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT  017/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT  028/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT  020/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05