:Product: 19991016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 289 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731
(N12W03) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH INCLUDING THE RE-FORMATION OF A
MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR REGION CENTER. IT PRODUCED
ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8728 (N23W26)
ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT WAS STABLE IN TERMS OF
SIZE AND MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE EITHER
STABLE OR DECLINING. NEW REGION 8735 (N18E40) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8731 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR
FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY WITH A DECREASING TREND AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 OCT 189
PREDICTED   30 DEC-16 OCT  185/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        16 OCT 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT  017/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01