:Product: 19991019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 292 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8732 (N22W52) AT 19/1941Z. THIS REGION
PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
REGION 8731 (N13W45) HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY , PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
MINOR SUBFLARES. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRIGHT SURGING WAS OBSERVED
ON THE SE LIMB BETWEEN 19/0700 - 1000Z, A CME FROM THE SAME LOCATION
OCCURRED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEW REGION 8737 (S15E14) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY, IT MAINTAINS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT. REGION 8732 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS
ACTIVITY. REGION 8737, IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, WILL
SOON BECOME A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE AS A CORONAL HOLE
MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
CLASS M    45/45/40
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 OCT 170
PREDICTED   20 OCT-22 OCT  170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN        19 OCT 159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  010/008-012/015-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05