:Product: 19991020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 293 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8731 (N14W55)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 20/0622Z ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II SWEEP.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
LIMB. REGION 8732 (N22W64) HAS STABILIZED SINCE PRODUCING A C8/SF
LATE LAST PERIOD AND A C7/1F AT 19/2204Z. NEW REGIONS 8738 (N16E28)
AND 8739 (S13E81) WERE NUMBERED TODAY:
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8731 AND 8732 ARE IN DECAY BUT POSSESS
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR DAYS ONE AND TWO. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RETURN OF A GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL
HOLE BY DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
CLASS M    45/40/30
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 OCT 159
PREDICTED   21 OCT-23 OCT  165/160/150
90 DAY MEAN        20 OCT 159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  010/010-010/012-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/50
MINOR STORM           15/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/15