:Product: 19991024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 297 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL C-CLASS FLARES CONTINUED
BUT AT A LESS FREQUENT RATE THAN YESTERDAY. REGION 8741 (S26E36)
PRODUCED THE LARGEST REPORTED FLARE, A C2/SF AT 24/1606UT. GROWTH IN
THIS REGION HAS SLOWED. REGION 8739 (S12E16) CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED A SMALL DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE
CENTRAL SUNSPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. M-CLASS FLARES
ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8739 AND 8741.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED IN ACTIVITY FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 24/0600-0900UT. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO
HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 OCT 159
PREDICTED   25 OCT-27 OCT  160/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        24 OCT 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT  026/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT  020/020-015/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/10