:Product: 19991025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 298 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1/1B FLARE OCCURRED AT
25/0631UT FROM REGION 8741 (S25E22). REGION 8739 (S12E03) CONTINUED
TO GROW IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. THE LARGEST FLARE IN THIS REGION
SINCE YESTERDAY WAS A C2/SF AT 25/0740UT. NEW REGIONS 8743 (S15E20)
AND 8744 (N08E43) WERE NUMBERED. A LARGE FILAMENT NEAR S32W30 TO
S54E25 ERUPTED FROM ABOUT 25/1215-1351UT. SIGNIFICANT X-RAY OR RADIO
OUTPUT WAS NOT OBSERVED WITH THE ERUPTION. COMPLETE CME INFORMATION
FROM LASCO WAS NOT YET AVAILABLE AT THIS WRITING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLARE IN REGION 8739 IS
INCREASING WITH ITS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 OCT 179
PREDICTED   26 OCT-28 OCT  170/170/170
90 DAY MEAN        25 OCT 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 OCT  020/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT  020/018-015/015-010/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/05