:Product: 19991026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 299 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8739 (S11W10)
PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, AN M2/1N AT 26/1852UT.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND NOW HAS AN OVERALL SUNSPOT AREA
OF ABOUT 800+ MILLIONTHS, INCLUDING MIXED POLARITIES AND A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8739 ALSO GENERATED SEVERAL C-CLASS
FLARES. REGIONS 8737 (S15W78) AND 8741 (S25E09) ALSO PRODUCED
C-CLASS ACTIVITY. NEW REGION 8745 (S14E66) IS ROTATING AROUND THE
EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8737, 8739,
AND 8741.  A MAJOR FLARE IN REGION 8739 IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BE INFLUENCED
BY A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 OCT 189
PREDICTED   27 OCT-29 OCT  190/190/185
90 DAY MEAN        26 OCT 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 OCT  010/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 OCT  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 OCT-29 OCT  010/015-015/015-015/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02