:Product: 19991027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 300 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. FOUR M-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED. THEY WERE AN M3/NO OPTICAL WITH TYPE II AT 26/2125Z, AN
M1/NO OPTICAL AT 0912Z, AN M1/SF WITH TYPE II AT 1337Z FROM REGION
8737 (S13W89), AND FINALLY, AN M1/NO OPTICAL AT 1541Z. LOOPS AND
SURGING ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
REGION 8737. IT IS LIKELY THAT IMPRESSIVE REGION 8739 (S12W23)
CONTRIBUTED TO THE M-LEVEL ACTIVITY. REGION 8739 HAS A LARGE AREA OF
BRIGHT PLAGE, AND SHOWS A DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. ONE OTHER
EVENT OF INTEREST WAS A C5/ NO OPTICAL, WITH TYPE II AT 0430Z. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8746 (S15E28) EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. WATCH REGIONS 8739 AND NOW-DEPARTING 8737  FOR
CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS NEAR
MIDDAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND AND ENHANCED
SOUTHWARD IMF SHOULD CAUSE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS, ESPECIALLY DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 OCT 197
PREDICTED   28 OCT-30 OCT  200/205/205
90 DAY MEAN        27 OCT 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  015/015-015/020-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           25/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01