:Product: 19991029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 302 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED
BY A NUMBER OF WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.  THE MAJORITY OF THESE
FLARES CAME FROM REGIONS 8739 (S11W50) AND 8747 (N11E44).  REGIONS
8748 (N19E04), 8749 (S21W49), AND 8750 (S18E10) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.  THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M FLARE FROM REGION 8739
REMAINS, BUT ITS DECAY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS APPARENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  PROLONGED
PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ LED TO THESE UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT WE
WILL NOT SEE THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 OCT-01 NOV
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 OCT 180
PREDICTED   30 OCT-01 NOV  180/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        29 OCT 157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 OCT  009/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 OCT  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 OCT-01 NOV  012/015-012/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 OCT-01 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/35
MINOR STORM           25/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05