:Product: 19991030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 303 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY A FEW WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED, THE LARGEST BEING A C1.  REGION 8751 (N20E66) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.  ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOT GROUPS IS HIGH, NONE OF THEM
ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR ACTIVITY.  REGION 8739 (S10W64)
REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX GROUP, BUT IS STILL UNDERGOING
A SLOW DECAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SINCE YESTERDAY
BZ MAGNITUDE HAS DECREASED AND IS NOW FLUCTUATING AROUND ZERO; THIS
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER MAGNETIC ACTIVITY THAN SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS FROM APPROXIMATELY 1330-1600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 OCT-02 NOV
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 OCT 169
PREDICTED   31 OCT-02 NOV  165/160/150
90 DAY MEAN        30 OCT 157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 OCT  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 OCT  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 OCT-02 NOV  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 OCT-02 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           20/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05