:Product: 19991031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 304 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C7/1N FROM REGION 8749 (S19E26) AT 31/0702UT.  THERE
ARE 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, AND EXCEPT FOR SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY DEVELOPING IN REGION 8749, ALL APPEAR STABLE OR
DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER
THAN 2MEV ELECTRONS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE
(GOES) AROUND 31/1600UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
INCREASED LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF A CORONAL HOLE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 NOV-03 NOV
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 OCT 160
PREDICTED   01 NOV-03 NOV  155/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        31 OCT 156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 OCT  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 OCT  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 NOV-03 NOV  008/008-008/008-010/011
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 NOV-03 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           20/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05