:Product: 19991101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 305 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C3/SF FROM REGION 8749 (S18E02) AT 01/0130UT.  REGION
8749 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. MINOR SURGE ACTIVITY IS
ACCOMPANYING REGION 8739 (S12W89) AS IT ROTATES OFF THE WEST LIMB.
ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING.  THE LARGE CORONAL HOLE
THAT CROSSED CM ON 11 OCT IS ROTATING BACK OVER THE EAST LIMB NEAR
THE EQUATOR.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  A BRIEF
ACTIVE PERIOD WAS OBSERVED AROUND 01/1200UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE FIELD
MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON 03 AND 04 NOV AS A RESULT OF EFFECTS FROM
A SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 NOV-04 NOV
CLASS M    20/15/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 NOV 151
PREDICTED   02 NOV-04 NOV  145/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        01 NOV 155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 OCT  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 NOV  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 NOV-04 NOV  008/007-010/009-008/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 NOV-04 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/30
MINOR STORM           20/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05