:Product: 19991102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 306 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THERE ARE SEVEN SPOTTED
REGIONS ON THE DISK.  MINOR GROWTH AND INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
WERE REPORTED IN REGIONS 8747 (N12W11) AND 8749 (S18W11).  ALL OTHER
REGIONS APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW.  LONGITUDES THAT WERE ACTIVE LAST MONTH WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE EAST LIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY RESULT IN
INCREASED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.  THE FIELD MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A
RESULT OF A SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 NOV-05 NOV
CLASS M    15/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 NOV 143
PREDICTED   03 NOV-05 NOV  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        02 NOV 155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 NOV  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 NOV  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 NOV-05 NOV  010/009-008/015-008/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 NOV-05 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           20/30/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05