:Product: 19991103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 307 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS.  THERE HAVE
BEEN ONLY MINOR X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TWO SMALL
SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8752 (S12E01) AND 8753 (N21 E63).
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN REGION 8749 (S18W26)
ALL REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING.  THE LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL
HOLE WHICH CROSSED CM ON 11 OCT HAS FULLY ROTATED ON TO THE DISK AND
IN SOME WAVELENGTHS APPEARS TO EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW.  THE ACTIVE LONGITUDES OF THE LAST SOLAR ROTATION WILL
ROTATE INTO VIEW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY
NO EVIDENCE OF ANY STRONG ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
THE LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE NOW APPROACHING CM.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
CLASS M    10/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 NOV 143
PREDICTED   04 NOV-06 NOV  135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        03 NOV 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  005/007-005/007-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05