:Product: 19991105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 309 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8749 (S18W51) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 05/1718Z ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. THIS REGION SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY,
BUT RETAINED A MIXED POLARITY STRUCTURE. A LONG-DURATION M3 X-RAY
FLARE OCCURRED AT 05/1829Z. THE SOURCE OF THE FLARE WAS JUST BEYOND
THE NORTHEAST LIMB WITH POST-FLARE LOOPS OBSERVED AT NE12 FOLLOWING
THE FLARE. EXTREMELY INTENSE CA XV ACTIVITY WAS VISIBLE ON THE
NORTHEAST LIMB, LIKELY INDICATING THE RETURN OF ACTIVE LONGITUDES.
NEW REGIONS 8755 (N19E71), 8756 (N18E11), AND 8757 (N38E09) WERE
ASSIGNED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. MORE M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8749 MAY ALSO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 05/2010Z WITH AN ESTIMATED MAGNITUDE OF 13 NT.
THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FIELD ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE IMPULSE.
ACE RTSW DATA INDICATED AN ABRUPT, BUT MINOR INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND
VELOCITIES AND A GRADUAL RISE IN DENSITIES AT L1 PRIOR TO THE SUDDEN
IMPULSE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD INCREASING TO
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY DAY TWO. MINOR STORM PERIODS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX MAY REACH HIGH
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 NOV 161
PREDICTED   06 NOV-08 NOV  165/175/185
90 DAY MEAN        05 NOV 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV  012/010-015/018-015/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/10