:Product: 19991106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 310 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. THREE SMALL
C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED, NONE OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY
CORRELATED. REGION 8749 (S18W64) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND
PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8747 (N10W64)
ALSO SHOWED SIGNS OF SLOW DECAY. REGION 8757 (N38W03) SHOWED A MINOR
INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND AREA, BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. REGION 8755
(N21E57) WAS DIVIDED INTO TWO REGIONS WITH THE TRAILING REGION
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8758 (N18E64). NEW REGION 8759 (N10E78) WAS
ALSO NUMBERED. IT APPEARED TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD ACTIVE REGION
8731.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8749 AND 8759 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST DAY. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE EARLY ON 08 NOVEMBER, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DISTURBANCE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO
REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 NOV 150
PREDICTED   07 NOV-09 NOV  160/170/180
90 DAY MEAN        06 NOV 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV  012/015-015/020-020/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/40
MINOR STORM           10/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/45
MINOR STORM           15/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10