:Product: 19991107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 311 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8759
(N08E70) PRODUCED A SINGLE C-CLASS SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT
IS A MODERATE-SIZED GROUP WITH A COMPACT SPOT DISTRIBUTION AND A
MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8757 (N36W16) SHOWED
SLOW GROWTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES, BUT
STABILIZED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. REGION 8749 (S18W76) CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLIGHT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE AS IT
APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. MINOR GROWTH WAS NOTED WITHIN REGION 8753
(N20E16) AND (NEWLY NUMBERED) REGION 8760 (N13E35). BOTH REGIONS
APPEARED TO BE SIMPLY-STRUCTURED BIPOLES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8759 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
ONSET OF CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA
INDICATED A TRANSITION TO A CORONAL HOLE WINDSTREAM BEGINNING
ROUGHLY 06/2300Z. FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH STORM LEVELS MOSTLY LIMITED TO
HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 NOV 174
PREDICTED   08 NOV-10 NOV  180/185/190
90 DAY MEAN        07 NOV 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV  022/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV  020/025-020/030-020/035
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/45/45
MINOR STORM           25/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10