:Product: 19991108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 312 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF FROM REGION 8759
(N13E59) AT 08/1852Z. THIS REGION HAS WHITE LIGHT AREA OF OVER 800
MILLIONTHS AND MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK DELTA
CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER OF THIS REGION. DEPARTING REGION 8749
(S18W88) PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 08/0602Z. REGION 8760 EMERGED STEADILY
DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A C4/SN AT 08/1117Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE
DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGE AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OF REGION
8759 INDICATE THAT M-CLASS EVENTS ARE PROBABLE FROM THIS AREA. THE
FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS FLARES SHOULD BE EVERY 1-2 DAYS SINCE THE
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING. REGION 8760 SHOULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT MATURES. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8759 DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 08/0600-1500Z. A FEW HIGH
LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THAT
PERIOD. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE IS CORONAL HOLE
RELATED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN DISTURBED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MID LATITUDES CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AND HIGH LATITUDES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THE CORONAL
HOLE CAUSING THIS DISTURBANCE IS QUITE WIDE AND THE HIGH SPEED
STREAM FROM IT SHOULD IMPACT THE EARTH FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 NOV 192
PREDICTED   09 NOV-11 NOV  190/192/194
90 DAY MEAN        08 NOV 156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV  020/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  022/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  020/037-020/035-018/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           30/30/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           35/35/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/20/20