:Product: 19991109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 313 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8759 (N10E46)
PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M1/1F AT 09/2009Z. THIS REGION IS LARGE
AND WAS GENERALLY STABLE BUT EXHIBITED SOME MIXED POLARITIES
INCLUDING A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER WHERE THE M1
FLARE WAS LOCATED. REGION 8760 (N14E10) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A
MODERATELY FAST PACE AND PRODUCED A C8/2B AT 09/0607Z WITH MINOR
RADIO BURSTS. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT SUBFLARES, THIS REGION
EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PERIOD. THERE WERE
INDICATIONS THAT A MODERATE SIZE REGION IS RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BOTH REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 ARE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8759 COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/0900-1200Z. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS CORONAL HOLE RELATED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT BECAME HIGH NEAR 09/1035Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AT MID LATITUDES, AND MAJOR STORMING AT
HIGH LATITUDES, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE WEEK. THERE IS A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 NOV 230
PREDICTED   10 NOV-12 NOV  215/220/225
90 DAY MEAN        09 NOV 157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV  019/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  025/029
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  020/027-018/025-018/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           30/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           35/35/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/20/15