:Product: 19991110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 314 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION
8759 (N10E33) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/0140Z. THIS REGION SHOWED
SLIGHT DECAY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE VERY LITTLE
MAGNETIC SHEAR IN THIS LARGE REGION. REGION 8753 (N19W23) BEGAN A
GROWTH PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT
10/1549Z. THE NUMBER OF SMALL SPOTS IN THIS REGION NEARLY DOUBLED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8760 (N13W03) GENERATED A C5/SF AT
10/0334Z. THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE
PERIOD. REGION 8761 (N20E26) PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 10/1952Z. A
MODERATE SIZE CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED AT S13E75 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8763. THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL
C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8753, 8759, 8761
AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD
WAS FROM 09/2100-10/0000Z. DURING THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
SLOWLY DECREASED TO NEAR 520 KM/S. THIS DECREASE WAS NOT OBSERVED
FROM THIS CORONAL HOLE LAST SOLAR ROTATION. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11-12 NOV.
ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE EXTENSIVE AND FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM WOULD CEASE BEFORE 12 NOV. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR 13 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCRONOUS
ORBIT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 NOV 249
PREDICTED   11 NOV-13 NOV  255/260/262
90 DAY MEAN        10 NOV 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  024/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  018/018-018/018-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01