:Product: 19991111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 315 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
REGION 8753 (N18W36) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 10/2213Z. MODERATE
CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. DECAY OCCURRED IN
THIS REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8759 (N10E20) GENERATED A
C8/1N AT 11/1449Z. THIS REGION ALSO DECAYED IN WHITE LIGHT AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N13W17) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES
AND CONTINUED TO EMERGE BUT AT A SLOW RATE. A MODERATE SIZE NEW
REGION, 8765 (S10E73), ROTATED OVER THE LIMB BEHIND REGION 8763
(S14E60). REGION 8763 PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
MODERATE. REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 REMAIN AS THE LIKELY SOURCES OF
M-CLASS FLARES DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND SLIGHTLY MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS.
HOWEVER, SEVERAL OTHER LESSER REGIONS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE
FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 11/0300-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED TO AROUND 650 KM/S AND DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING THE
EARTH REMAINS IN THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM MENTIONED OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. NO SOHO CORONAGRAPH DATA HAVE BEEN
AVAILABLE SINCE 08 NOV.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN DISTURBED ON 12 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ON 13 NOV, THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED
TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE
SUBSIDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 14 NOV. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 NOV 240
PREDICTED   12 NOV-14 NOV  242/245/245
90 DAY MEAN        11 NOV 159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  023/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  018/018-010/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/10
MINOR STORM           25/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/15
MINOR STORM           30/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01