:Product: 19991112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 316 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C4 WAS OBSERVED AT 12/0130Z WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. REGION 8759 (N10E06) PRODUCED AN M1
AT 12/0916Z WHICH WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH THE LASCO/SOHO EIT
DATA. THE REGION PRODUCED ANOTHER M1/SF AT 12/1154Z. SEVERAL OF THE
TWELVE NUMBERED REGIONS ON THE SOLAR DISK PRODUCED SUBFLARES DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR FLARING EXISTS FROM SEVERAL OF
THE REGIONS CURRENTLY TRANSITING THE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED AT MID-LATITUDES DURING THE 11/2100Z PERIOD. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVE LEVELS MAY OCCUR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE CURRENT
CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 NOV 232
PREDICTED   13 NOV-15 NOV  225/220/215
90 DAY MEAN        12 NOV 160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 NOV  022/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 NOV  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 NOV-15 NOV  010/012-008/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05