:Product: 19991113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 317 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8763 (S14E32)
PRODUCED TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A
M1/1F AT 13/0258Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C6/1F AT 13/1623Z. THIS
REGION HAS DECREASED IN AREA FROM YESTERDAY BUT HAS MAINTAINED A
STRONG MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS PRODUCED SUBFLARES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N14W45) REMAINS THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 570 MILLIONTHS. A NEW
REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8766 (N18E68).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE M-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES AT 13/1500Z AND 13/2100Z. PROLONGED
PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ IN THE SOLAR WIND HAVE LED TO THESE
CONDITIONS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ONGOING
SOUTHWARD BZ IN THE SOLAR WIND.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 NOV 224
PREDICTED   14 NOV-16 NOV  220/215/210
90 DAY MEAN        13 NOV 161
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV  008/012-008/012-010/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10