:Product: 19991114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 318 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVERAL M-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8763 (S16E18) PRODUCED AN M8/2B
AT 13/0801Z, REGION 8766 (N17E57) PRODUCED AN M5/2N AT 13/1607Z,
REGION 8765 (S14E32) PRODUCED AN M2/SN AT 13/1623Z, REGION 8759
(N12W20) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 13/1704Z, AND ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M2 OCCURRED AT 13/1809Z. REGION 8765 IS THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 640 MILLIONTHS. THE MOST DYNAMIC
REGION IS REGION 8766 WHICH CONTAINS A  STRONG DELTA CONFIGURATION.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8767 (N44W28) AND
REGION 8768 (N16E33).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8759, 8763, 8765, AND 8766
ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS EVENTS AND AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME
SECTORS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 NOV 219
PREDICTED   15 NOV-17 NOV  215/210/210
90 DAY MEAN        14 NOV 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV  022/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  008/015-010/018-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05