:Product: 19991115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 319 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8765 (S13E19)
PRODUCED AN M2/2N FLARE AT 15/0841Z. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
ALSO OBSERVED THIS PERIOD. REGION 8765 REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON
THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 820 MILLIONTHS. THIS REGION HAS
STRONG MIXED POLARITIES WITH A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. ANOTHER
REGION OF NOTE IS REGION 8766 (N17E44) WHICH DOES DISPLAY A DELTA
CONFIGURATION WITHIN THE GROUP. A 24 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N44E32
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 14/1845-2115Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY
AS REGION 8769 (S10E76).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE M-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL WITH THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 NOV 206
PREDICTED   16 NOV-18 NOV  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        15 NOV 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  010/010-010/010-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10