:Product: 19991116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 320 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SIX M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED. THE FIRST AND LARGEST WAS AN M3/1B FLARE AT 16/0246Z FROM
REGION 8766 (N18E31). A TYPE II AND IV SWEEP, A 360 SFU TENFLARE,
AND A PARTIAL HALO CME ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE. THIS REGION,
THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL, MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
REGION 8765 (S12E06) PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 16/0710Z AND AN M1/IN AT
16/1411Z. THIS REGION IS A VERY LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX
REGION WITH TWO DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. WHITE LIGHT COVERAGE HAS NOW
EXCEEDED 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. AN M3/SN FLARE WAS
OBSERVED IN REGION 8760 (N15W81). A PARTIAL HALO CME OCCURRED WITH
THIS FLARE. NEW REGION 8770 (S14W23) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8765 HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MAJOR
PROTON PRODUCING FLARE SOON. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IN REGION 8766. REGIONS 8759 (N12W45) AND 8760 MAY ALSO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
NEGATIVE BZ HAS PERSISTED SINCE AROUND 16/0900Z RESULTING IN THE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY 2. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FREQUENT
FLARE ACTIVITY AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 NOV 233
PREDICTED   17 NOV-19 NOV  225/215/200
90 DAY MEAN        16 NOV 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  012/012-012/012-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/45/45
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/50
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10