:Product: 19991118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 322 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF SOME OF THE LARGEST REGIONS OF THE SOLAR CYCLE, THE SUN HAS BEEN
SURPRISINGLY QUIET.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A M1/1F
FROM REGION 8771 (S14E46).  REGION 8765 (S12W20), NOW APPROACHING
1300 MILLIONTHS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE AND CONTAINS AT LEAST
ONE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION.  REGION 8772 (NO5E71) WAS
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.  MOST OF THE REGIONS NOW VISIBLE ON THE SUN HAVE
EITHER PRODUCED M FLARES OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SUSPECTED CME ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 NOV 218
PREDICTED   19 NOV-21 NOV  210/200/200
90 DAY MEAN        18 NOV 166
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  011/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  020/020-020/020-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/45/40
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/40
MINOR STORM           25/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10