:Product: 19991119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 323 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8773 (S14E39) WAS SPLIT
OFF FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF REGION 8771 (S15E28).  TWO OTHER
SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8774 (N22E69) AND REGION
8775 (S17W18).  A LARGE FILAMENT/PROMINENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST HAS
ERUPTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. MAJOR FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8765 (S12
W34), REGION 8766 (N17 W11), AND REGION 8771 (S15E28).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS BASICALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD EXPECTED
TO BE UNSETTELED TO ACTIVE.  THERE IS EVIDENCE IN THE SOLAR WIND
DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOLAR WIND
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 NOV-22 NOV
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 NOV 210
PREDICTED   20 NOV-22 NOV  205/200/200
90 DAY MEAN        19 NOV 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV  020/020-015/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 NOV-22 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/40/20
MINOR STORM           20/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05