:Product: 19991122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 326 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8765
(S13W72) SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB, BUT
REMAINED LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDING A C8/SF AT 22/1217Z. REGION
8771 (S16W11) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. IT SHOWED GRADUAL
GROWTH AND REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION
8776 (S29W01) GREW GRADUALLY AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, BUT
REMAINED A SIMPLY-STRUCTURED BIPOLE. REGION 8766 (N17W49) CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8765 AND 8771 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE
FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE
LEVELS OCCURRED DURING 22/1100 - 1400Z IN RESPONSE TO A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
DECLINED TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO (BRIEFLY) ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, SHOULD A MAJOR
FLARE OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8765 OR 8771.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 NOV-25 NOV
CLASS M    75/70/70
CLASS X    15/10/10
PROTON     10/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 NOV 192
PREDICTED   23 NOV-25 NOV  185/170/165
90 DAY MEAN        22 NOV 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV  011/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  015/018-012/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 NOV-25 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01