:Product: 19991123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 327 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8771
(S14W26) PRODUCED NUMEROUS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDING A
FEW THAT REACHED C-CLASS. THIS REGION APPEARED TO STABILIZE AS A
LARGE E-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH COMPACT SUNSPOT DISTRIBUTION AND A
MIXED-POLARITY MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8765 (S12W85) REMAINED A
LARGE, MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX GROUP, BUT WAS STABLE AS IT BEGAN TO
CROSS THE WEST LIMB. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8771
AND REGION 8765 (AS IT ROTATES OUT OF VIEW). THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE
LEVELS OCCURRED DURING 23/0500 - 0900Z FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. ACTIVITY DECLINED TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
AFTER 23/0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, SHOULD A MAJOR FLARE OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8765
OR 8771.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 NOV-26 NOV
CLASS M    70/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 NOV 186
PREDICTED   24 NOV-26 NOV  175/170/155
90 DAY MEAN        23 NOV 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV  012/015-010/010-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 NOV-26 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01