:Product: 19991124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 328 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C9 X-RAY EVENT AT 24/1222Z. THE LIKELY
SOURCE WAS ACTIVE REGION 8765 (L234) WHICH JUST ROTATED AROUND THE
WEST LIMB. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED OFF THE WEST LIMB NEAR N45,A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS ERUPTION. REGION 8771 (N18W40)
REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH 750 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AERIAL COVERAGE. A C6/1N FLARE OCCURRED IN THIS
REGION AT 24/1930Z WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSIONS. NEW REGIONS
8779 (S09W27) AND 8780 (S11E51) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8771 AND OLD REGION 8765 ARE STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH A
SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT 24/09-12Z. SUSTAINED NEGATIVE BZ
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MINOR DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 NOV 187
PREDICTED   25 NOV-27 NOV  185/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        24 NOV 166
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  018/019
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  012/010-010/010-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01