:Product: 19991125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 329 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE WITH THREE M-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OBSERVED THIS PERIOD. REGION 8778 (S14E10) PRODUCED A VERY
IMPULSIVE M2/1B FLARE AT 24/2156Z. THIS REGION, THOUGH RELATIVELY
SMALL WITH NO OBVIOUS GROWTH, CONTAINS SOME MIXED POLARITY AND
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE M2 FLARE. REGION
8771 (S15W51) PRODUCED AN M3 FLARE AT 24/2337Z WITH A TYPE II SWEEP
AND MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. ACTIVITY INCREASED IN THIS REGION
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A SERIES OF C-CLASS EVENTS CULMINATED
WITH A M2/2N FLARE AT 25/1919Z. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED IN SIZE
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST TWO TO THREE DAYS AND NOW MEASURES NEAR
820 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA WITH A POSSIBLE DELTA
CONFIGURATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OR ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE
REMAINING REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8771 WITH
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8778.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH AN ISOLATED
MAJOR STORMING PERIOD BETWEEN 25/09-12Z. ACE RTSW DATA INDICATED A
SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD IN BZ AT AROUND 25/0900Z, BUT THIS LASTED LESS
THAN TWO HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHWARD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH THE MOST
DISTURBED CONDITIONS OCCURRING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
CLASS M    60/55/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 NOV 184
PREDICTED   26 NOV-28 NOV  180/175/165
90 DAY MEAN        25 NOV 166
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 NOV  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 NOV  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 NOV-28 NOV  012/012-007/010-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/35
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05