:Product: 19991126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 330 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8771 (S14W63) PRODUCED
AN M6/2N FLARE AT 26/1343Z. THIS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION WAS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR AN M5/3B TENFLARE AT 26/0123Z AND AN M1/2B
FLARE AT 26/0400Z. THOUGH THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF DECAY, THE
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINS INTACT. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WAS OBSERVED MOSTLY OFF THE WEST LIMB AT 26/0754Z. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE SOURCE FOR THE CME, BUT A C3/SF WITH A
TYPE II SWEEP WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8778 (S14W05) AT 26/0705Z. THIS
REGION DID EXHIBIT SOME GROWTH THIS PERIOD AND REMAINS A MODERATELY
COMPLEX E-TYPE SPOT GROUP. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT MORE M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION
8771 WITH A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8778 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR DAY ONE AND TWO. EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S
CME MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 NOV-29 NOV
CLASS M    60/55/45
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 NOV 172
PREDICTED   27 NOV-29 NOV  170/165/155
90 DAY MEAN        26 NOV 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV  017/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV  007/008-007/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 NOV-29 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05