:Product: 19991128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 332 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8771 (S15W85)
PRODUCED AN M3/SN AT 28/0146UT AND AN M1/SF AT 28/0557UT. LIMB
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THIS REGION WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A
LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE WHICH STARTED AT 28/1800UT AND PEAKED
AT 1917UT. LIMB PROXIMITY IS MAKING OBSERVATIONS OF THIS REGION
DIFFICULT. A NUMBER OF OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS PRODUCED SMALL FLARES,
INCLUDING 8773 (S12W71), 8778 (S14W33), AND 8781 (S13E22).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH A CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8771 BEFORE IT
COMPLETELY DEPARTS THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BE
ENHANCED DURING THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME
ON NOV 26 AND/OR A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
CLASS M    60/50/40
CLASS X    10/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 NOV 175
PREDICTED   29 NOV-01 DEC  160/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        28 NOV 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  010/012-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05