:Product: 19991129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 333 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 NOV 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1/SF FLARE OCCURRED IN
REGION 8773 (S11W85) AT 29/1414UT. THIS IS A SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP
JUST TO THE EAST OF MAJOR FLARE PRODUCER 8771 (S15, LO=167) WHICH
HAS ROTATED BEYOND THE WEST SOLAR LIMB. A NUMBER OF SMALLER FLARES
OCCURRED FROM A VARIETY OF REGIONS, INCLUDING A C6/SF AT 29/0438UT
IN DECAYING REGION 8778 (S14W47). REGIONS 8781 (S13E09) AND 8782
(N10W27) ARE GROWING AND ALSO PRODUCED SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8773, 8778,
8781, AND 8782. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY BUT ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM 8773 OR 8778.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
CLASS M    50/40/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 NOV 164
PREDICTED   30 NOV-02 DEC  160/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        29 NOV 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05