:Product: 19991202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 336 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY PERSISTS AT THE LOW LEVEL. AN
UNASSOCIATED C5 AT 1012Z WAS THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT. REGION 8782
(N11W68) HAD FREQUENT SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8781
(S12W29) ALSO CONTRIBUTED AN OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARE. THE DISK IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A NUMBER OF SMALL EMERGING SUNSPOT GROUPS,
DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT ALL HELIOLONGITUDES. ALL ARE IN A RUDIMENTARY
STAGE NOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN INCREASE IN FLARE ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE IF ANY OF THE EMERGING ACTIVE CENTERS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM, EMANATING FROM A LARGE SOUTHERN
CORONAL HOLE, SHOULD CAUSE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE LAST
TWO DAYS OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 DEC 166
PREDICTED   03 DEC-05 DEC  170/180/190
90 DAY MEAN        02 DEC 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC  005/005-010/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/20/30
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/40
MINOR STORM           01/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01