:Product: 19991203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 337 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
UNOBSERVED IMPULSIVE C6 AT 1953Z. FOUR NEW ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD. THEY ARE 8786 (N22W23), 8787 (N11E30),
8788 (N10E66), AND 8789 (N29W23). SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST YET ANOTHER
REGION MAY BE SOON TO APPEAR AROUND N10 AT THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE
ELEVATED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS, CHARACTERISTIC OF A CORONAL HOLE-RELATED
STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE HIGH
SPEED STREAM SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 DEC-06 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 DEC 152
PREDICTED   04 DEC-06 DEC  160/170/180
90 DAY MEAN        03 DEC 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC  015/020-015/025-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 DEC-06 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/50
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01