:Product: 19991204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 338 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, WITH REGION 8788 (N10E56) BEING THE MOST PRODUCTIVE DISK
REGION. SURGING HAS BEEN SEEN MOST OF THE DAY NEAR N10W90, WHERE
REGION 8782 IS MAKING ITS TRANSIT. THE STATE OF THE DISK CAN BE
DESCRIBED AS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS.
HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND, MEASURING NEAR 700 KM/S, CONTINUES TO BUFFET
THE MAGNETOPAUSE AND FUEL THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE
END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 DEC-07 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 DEC 148
PREDICTED   05 DEC-07 DEC  150/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        04 DEC 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 DEC  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 DEC  022/034
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 DEC-07 DEC  020/030-020/020-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 DEC-07 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/40
MINOR STORM           25/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                55/55/50
MINOR STORM           30/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05