:Product: 19991205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 339 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. JUST INFREQUENT SMALL
C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8788 (N10E43) IS STILL THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE OF THE FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS
DAY-OLD DISTURBANCE IS A CONSEQUENCE OF HIGH SPEED (650 KM/S) SOLAR
WIND FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EPISODIC MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THIS STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FIELD THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 DEC-08 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 DEC 143
PREDICTED   06 DEC-08 DEC  145/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        05 DEC 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC  021/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC  017/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC  020/020-015/018-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 DEC-08 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/40
MINOR STORM           25/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                55/50/50
MINOR STORM           30/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05