:Product: 19991206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 340 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. THE LARGEST ACTIVITY WAS A
C8/2N TENFLARE EVENT FROM REGION 8788 (N09E29) AT 06/0718UT. THIS
EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 500 KM/S AND A
FULL-HALO CME AS DETECTED BY THE LASCO SPACECRAFT. NEW REGION 8790
(N09E47) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS A SMALL 4 SPOT
BXO BETA GROUP IT IS SHOWING INCREASING ACTIVITY AND HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE MOSTLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF HIGH
SPEED SOLAR WIND FROM A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EPISODIC MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME'S. THIS STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FIELD FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FULL-HALO
CME DESCRIBED ABOVE COULD HAVE POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC AFFECTS ON
DECEMBER 9-10.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 DEC 143
PREDICTED   07 DEC-09 DEC  150/150/155
90 DAY MEAN        06 DEC 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 DEC  019/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC  015/018-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                01/01/01
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                01/01/01
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01