:Product: 19991207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 341 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. JUST INFREQUENT SMALL
C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8788 IS STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF
THE FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET. NEW REGION 8791
(S13E68) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
FORMER REGION 8765 IS DUE TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 24-HOURS AND COULD
POSSIBLY INCREASE THE LEVEL OF SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. A FULL-HALO CME DETECTED BY THE
LASCO SPACECRAFT ON DECEMBER 6TH COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE GEOMAGNETIC
AFFECTS ON DECEMBER 8-9.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 DEC 153
PREDICTED   08 DEC-10 DEC  165/180/190
90 DAY MEAN        07 DEC 166
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 DEC  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 DEC  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 DEC-10 DEC  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/40
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/60/50
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05