:Product: 19991208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 342 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE ISOLATED
M1/SN EVENT FROM REGION 8791 (S14E53) AT 07/2120UT. ONLY INFREQUENT
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NEW REGION
8792 (N17E69) WAS NUMBERED DURING THIS PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. EIT IMAGES FROM
THE SOHO SPACECRAFT SHOW LARGE AREAS OF ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
LIMB. AS THESE ACTIVE REGIONS BEGIN TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK LOOK FOR
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE PERIOD
(08/06-09UT) OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FOR
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 DEC 150
PREDICTED   09 DEC-11 DEC  165/180/190
90 DAY MEAN        08 DEC 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC  008/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC  015/018-012/015-005/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/30
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/50/40
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05