:Product: 19991209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 343 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY INFREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8793
(S16E11) AND 8794 (S15E58).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE ACTIVE
PERIOD OCCURRING AT 09/03-06UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 DEC 156
PREDICTED   10 DEC-12 DEC  165/175/185
90 DAY MEAN        09 DEC 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC  012/010-005/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05