:Product: 19991210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 344 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8795 (S12E06) WAS
NUMBERED.  REGION 8795 DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH DURING THE LAST
DAY AND IS CURRENTLY  A DAO-BETA SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 DEC 164
PREDICTED   11 DEC-13 DEC  170/180/185
90 DAY MEAN        10 DEC 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  012/010-010/012-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05