:Product: 19991211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 345 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8794 (S14E31)
PRODUCED A C2/1F EVENT AT 11/0333Z.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE FIRST DAY DUE TO A SOLAR
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE ON 09 DECEMBER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 DEC 159
PREDICTED   12 DEC-14 DEC  170/180/185
90 DAY MEAN        11 DEC 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC  010/010-010/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/30
MINOR STORM           25/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05