:Product: 19991212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 346 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY ONE MINOR C-CLASS EVENT
WAS OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE REGIONS ARE CURRENTLY
STABLE OR SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VELOCITY AND TEMPERATURE STARTING AROUND
12/1630Z.  ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE IMMEDIATELY OBSERVED AFTERWARDS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTELY QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY AS
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.  QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 DEC 159
PREDICTED   13 DEC-15 DEC  160/170/175
90 DAY MEAN        12 DEC 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 DEC  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 DEC  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 DEC-15 DEC  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01